FALL 1997 GUESSES - 20TH ANNIVERSARY EDITION

Long before ratings websites filled up with viewer scheduling comments, I had been sending out schedule analyses during job searches.  While in college, I had sent the president of NBC, Brandon Tartikoff, one of these analyses and got an invitation to meet with him.  I was still living in New York then, but a couple years later, I made the trek to Burbank.  Perhaps, someday, I will dig up the "homework" he gave me: scheduling ideas for five new series.   I had some good ideas in there, but gave QUANTUM LEAP little chance to survive.  Oops!

Last night, I found this 1997 analysis that I mailed out (yes, with the post office and stamps!  Corporate e-mail only worked internally back then.)   It's a fun look back at a six-broadcast-network universe.

Thanks for indulging this relic from my personal files.   This was written after screening the fall's new pilots (on vhs, second and third-generation quality) so at least, I was on target as an early fan of ALLY McBEAL, before it became a national phenomenon.

 KEN HOMMEL FALL 1997 ANALYSIS  6/1/97

MONDAY

CBS: RAYMOND is the key program in maintaining CBS’ traditional Monday comedy line-up.  This may be their weakest line-up in a decade.  COSBY and CYBILL have both peaked.  GEORGE & LEO will help but, unfortunately, is not an innovative program.  BROOKLYN SOUTH is deserving of this slot but will need more female appeal to counter FOOTBALL.  There also will be the inevitable comparisons to HILL STREET BLUES and NYPD BLUE.  The Brooklyn neighborhood should become a major “character” in this series to distinguish the series from its predecessors where the cops weren’t necessarily “from the neighborhood”.

NBC: A bold move with similar, yet mediocre, programs.  FIRED UP and NAKED TRUTH are the weak links but retooling and stronger supporting casts could help (SUSAN needs such help, too).   The leads of FIRED UP should not be adversaries or roommates, for that matter.  This series could provide a ‘90's look at starting a business and making one’s own living during times of uncertain employment.  NAKED TRUTH needs to go back to its first season “celebrity tabloid” stories with a more determined, sexy Tea Leoni.  This could become a comfortable night of familiar faces, posing a real threat to CBS’ line-up.  I don’t see this strategy failing, even if one or two shows need replacing mid-season.   I anticipate a theme night cross-over in November.  DATELINE also will be a competitive factor for second place at 10 PM.

ABC: TIMECOP is a good companion to FOOTBALL and could be a long-awaited successor to the MACGYVER audience in this hour.

FOX: MELROSE PLACE should continue to reinvigorate the show with new cast members.   ALLY McBEAL is fresh, fast-paced and highly imaginative.   Calista Flockhart could become a star with strong appeal to men and women.  David E. Kelley has crafted a definitive Fox series that should do well after MELROSE PLACE.  By mid-season, it could even attract viewers tired of the waning performance of CYBILL.  

UPN and WB: Both have made in-roads and were wise to remain mostly with returning series.

TUESDAY

CBS: JAG, a surprise renewal, has a shot at second-place behind NBC but it’s too bad CBS didn’t have a stronger starter in its development this year.  (Even a half-decent HAWAII FIVE-O might have enlisted a bigger audience.)  MICHAEL HAYES and DELLAVENTURA will be replaced by the TUESDAY MOVIE by mid-season.  HAYES will get a new slot eventually but DELLAVENTURA may not deserve one.

NBC: Here are four smart, upscale comedies which may be more viewer-friendly than the sometimes inconsistent Thursday line-up.   MAD ABOUT YOU will dominate and resuscitate NEWSRADIO, which deserved a Thursday slot but will fit in well in its original time slot.  FRASIER’s quality and appeal could finally upstage HOME IMPROVEMENT.   JUST SHOOT ME can also thrive as it establishes an identity among all the other workplace sitcoms.  DATELINE will benefit from its strong lead-in and an aging NYPD BLUE.

ABC: Falling back into mistakes made in the ‘80's after the departure of HAPPY DAYS and THREE’S COMPANY, the network has left itself wide open to lose its signature night.  SOUL MAN will need a more established lead-in (SPIN CITY?) and the new comedies will have to be blockbusters to support HOME IMPROVEMENT in its seventh season.  The 8:00 hour will crumble by November sweeps.  NYPD BLUE may lose some more mileage but should be a solid performer if the writing holds up.

FOX: The movie will continue to be only a rare threat in the case of major theatrical premieres.

UPN: CLUELESS should revitalize the line-up and gain from ABC’s failure in this hour.  The all-comedy line-up could make slow but steady in-roads for the network.

WB: DAWSON’S CREEK has a chance of grabbing the younger audience but will take a while to catch on, especially if CLUELESS does well.  Its content is better suited for a 9 PM slot.  THREE will have a tough time against older but still vital competition.

WEDNESDAY

CBS: THE NANNY has done impossible by winning this timeslot for CBS but will still be vulnerable to strong competition.  Fortunately, the other networks haven’t provided any strong contenders this season.  MURPHY BROWN will struggle having long overstayed its welcome.  GUMBEL could become a viable economical alternative to DREW vs. 3^rd ROCK.  CHICAGO HOPE will struggle against time period veterans, LAW & ORDER and PRIMETIME LIVE.  Like NORTHERN EXPOSURE and PICKET FENCES before it, CHICAGO may fade.

NBC: TONY DANZA has a chance at getting second place, helping BUILT TO LAST, 3^RD ROCK and WORKING whittle away at ABC.  LAW & ORDER should continue a solid performance.

ABC: Again, a very weak 8-9 hour.  SPIN CITY is woefully misscheduled at this early hour and still needs nurturing.  This is the same mistake NBC made last season with NEWSRADIO.   It should regain a 9:30 spot either on Tuesday or Wednesday.  If it must be at 8, it would do better on Tuesday where viewers are familiar with it.  DHARMA AND GREG desperately needs a new name but if the buzz is good, could do fairly well at 8:30.   It may deserve the Tuesday at 9:30 slot if HILLER AND DILLER is bumped.  GRACE UNDER FIRE could come back at 8.   DREW CAREY will have real competition for first place with 3^RD ROCK and ELLEN will continue to fade.  PRIMETIME LIVE could have some problems at 10 if LAW & ORDER benefits from stronger lead-ins.

FOX: Another solid night.  90210 could bounce back for second and third place in the hour while PARTY OF FIVE will at best reach third against the battling comedies.  Still, a night with loyal viewers and few repeats!

UPN: Also a good move with returning series but THE SENTINEL still isn’t a high-profile show.  It could pay to flip VOYAGER to 8 away from 3^rd ROCK and DREW.

WB: Again, returning series with WAYANS at 9:30 outstaying its welcome.

  

THURSDAY

CBS: A safe counterprogramming line-up of PROMISED LAND/DIAGNOSIS/48 HOURS.  However, PROMISED LAND would have been a bigger success if it had been moved to ANGEL’s old Saturday 9 PM slot.

NBC: FRIENDS reaches a crucial year as its continues to pass its prime.  However, its competition should do less damage than its own past reputation.  The show needs to reenergize with more interesting situations and relationships and sharper writing.  UNION SQUARE may do well but could be another show unworthy of the Thursday line-up.  Never underestimate SEINFELD.  The show still demonstrates more creativity in its later years than most shows ever do.  VICTORIA’S CLOSET will be a welcome addition at 9:30 and ER will continue to decimate the competition although it should add a female lead to replace Sherry Stringfield.

ABC: NOTHING SACRED will be quickly sacrificed but CRACKER may be a good counter-programming move.  The 20/20 Thursday edition was a great idea in the wake of DATELINE’s success.

FOX: Very smart of the network to start over on this night as NBC’s line-up ages.  These may not be the shows to do the job and I think a four-comedy attack would have been stronger and more promotable.  413 HOPE STREET will fail quickly.

UPN: Another good move, as the Sci-Fi movie can appeal to the male audience as syndicated series have done for years.  It also allows new franchises to be developed.

FRIDAY

CBS: The TGIF clone will be an expensive failure as its audience has already grown up and gone out on Friday night.  The new generation of kids will watch SABRINA and stay with ABC and its newer efforts.   Also, it appears that there are not any other “TGIF” type shows in reserve at CBS when some of these shows fail.  NASH will also suffer from this lead-in at 10.  Perhaps MICHAEL HAYES could get a shot at 10 PM with NASH at 9.

NBC: It was an unexpected move to jettison UNSOLVED for a new show, especially the derivative PLAYERS, without ordering UNSOLVED as a mid-season back-up for here or even Saturday night.  It was wise to try something new in this hour but PLAYERS will probably not survive.  DATELINE and HOMICIDE will benefit as ABC and CBS clash.

ABC: SABRINA’s move to 8:00 was an expected and smart move.  BOY MEETS WORLD, having failed at 9:30, conservatively remains where it does best.   GENIE and TEEN ANGEL will beat CBS but may not be what ABC needs to regain its popularity on this night.  Back-ups should be developed even if it means aiming at a slightly older audience (ala FRIENDS and DREW).   AMERICA’S FUNNIEST HOME VIDEOS may also be a consideration for mid-season here.  20/20 will continue to dominate.

FOX: VISITOR should help MILLENNIUM if the show improves creatively.  VISITOR could be second place in this hour. 

SATURDAY:

CBS: There will be stronger competition to “America’s Night of Television” this year as DR. QUINN limps along.  Perhaps EARLY EDITION will have a break-out sophomore year but the NBC “Thrillogy” will be a major threat.  WALKER will still dominate at 10.

NBC: If SLEEPWALKERS does well, the “Thrillogy” could really take off for NBC.  PRETENDER and PROFILER should grow into dependable performers.

ABC: The weak link here is TOTAL SECURITY which should really do a new first episode and bury the pilot later in the order.  C-16 requires a new name but could be a solid performer.  THE PRACTICE will have an uphill battle being such an intellectual program but could regain the “law and order” audience that enjoyed THE COMMISH in this slot for four years.  CRACKER would be a better lead-in for THE PRACTICE.

FOX: Same old line-up.  NEW YORK UNDERCOVER should go in at 9.

SUNDAY

CBS: A huge missed opportunity here by not replacing the movie with series.  EARLY EDITION and CHICAGO HOPE could have places in the top 20 on this night just as ANGEL moved into the top 10 last season.

NBC: An odd choice for MEN BEHAVING BADLY and JENNY to compete with the same audience as Fox in this hour.   It appears this is the one hour on which the Peacock has given up.  Perhaps even PLAYERS or another one hour drama here.

ABC: Except for blockbusters like “Toy Story”,  DISNEY will often settle for fourth place.

FOX: A strong line-up which may give Fox a second place position on this night.

WB: The returning shows will fade as they creep up earlier to the 7 PM death slot.  TOM will not do well and should flip with OCEAN BEACH.  Carol Leifer could give the WB a break-out adult comedy.

WHY FOX MATTERS

Last night, after reading a few articles about the potential Disney-Fox deal, I had to see if the skies were truly falling.   Television is experiencing seismic shifts where no one truly knows everything that will happen next.  Some articles are probably click-bait, some are possibly insightful analyses.  Could the fourth broadcast network radically change under Disney, or even go away?  We know that there is more tv than ever before and viewers are turning to streaming while smaller cable networks are quietly shuttering.  I decided to take a big picture look at how Fox, despite being in a rough patch, still provides a unique service to the television fan.  Whereas many new services are flooding their shelves with original programming, those businesses are building their services.  Fox, in its 30 years of experience, builds shows.

We all know what Fox is, from its early boldness with MARRIED... WITH CHILDREN and 90210 to its recent achievements like EMPIRE premiering strong, then building for seven weeks unlike any new show in over 30 years.  Similarly, there is FX, which is a dream come true for fans of quality television with FARGO, BETTER THINGS and THE PEOPLE VS. O.J. SIMPSON.   Fox, obviously, isn't as much of a boutique as its younger brother but still has a clear identity.   To attempt a modern analogy: if FX is Amazon Prime, Fox is Amazon, which is reliably accessible to the masses who haven't signed on for annual payments.

Now, as mentioned in articles, in addition to NFL contracts, there are long-term commitments at Fox with THE SIMPSONS and FAMILY GUY.   Also, they are likely to renew THE GIFTED as Disney/Marvel expands its television portfolio with X-Men spin-offs.  So, in some form, as television morphs, Fox will have some roots that are not easy to sever.  It was also mentioned that shows where there is urgency like reality-competition shows could take up more time slots.  Streaming can't compete with the shared experience right now.  I agree about reality potential, but never underestimate the durability of just one hit comedy or drama.  There's also speculation that Fox missed out by having their studio's new hit THIS IS US on NBC.   I think THIS IS US is a much more natural fit for NBC, just as NBCU comedies like BROOKLYN NINE NINE and THE MINDY PROJECT were better fits on FOX.  

At a glance, Fox is an incredibly efficient model for showcasing series.   They have no 10 PM slots to worry about at a time where DVR usage and other competition have made that hour terribly challenging for broadcast networks.   Fox also has the mainstays, THE SIMPSONS and FAMILY GUY which are testaments to habitual viewers and also male viewers who don't typically watch much scripted television.  

So, if we even put aside Friday and Saturday with reality, encores and sports (as well as the fluctuating Sun 7 PM hour), we are talking only ten hours to focus on between Sun-Thu 8-10 PM.   EMPIRE and STAR seem to have locked up Wednesdays for much of the season.  Warner Bros' LUCIFER and GOTHAM are steady performers likely to return, showing how other studios benefit airing on Fox.  BOB'S BURGERS also has mileage left in it, and signals that another animated series could be a unique builder for the network since the other four broadcasters have none.  Now a deal may keep Disney from using competitive product on FBC, but their own shows like AGENTS OF SHIELD and THE RUNAWAYS would likely get a wider reach by being associated with the FBC brand.  Genre shows sometimes clash with broader networks with different audiences (See SUPERGIRL on CBS or SHIELD on ABC, home of Shondaland dramas.)  Even their edgier Disney XD style animated series would get a more varied demographic on Fox.  Those cartoons aren't just for kids.

So, we are looking at only a few vacant hours where a network can focus on making noise about a few new shows, rather than having to sell every new season of every product that a streamer does.   The shows that build on broadcast are often long-term performers which will be needed for various platforms even if traditional viewing fades away in the next decade.   People will still want their 200 episodes of SEINFELD, FRIENDS, NCIS and THE BIG BANG THEORY to shuffle through, whether it be nightly or in binges.  These 10-episode seasons of newer series that might reach 50 episodes total, will likely not be evergreens.  Since content is king, studios will want these marathon performers that will still be watched 20 years from now.  Are there any shows that have burned brightly and then quickly ended which still have an evergreen presence?

The challenge, as always, is building new hits.  And despite their power, even THE SIMPSONS and FAMILY GUY have rarely grown new hits at 8:30 and 9:30.  But they don't require to make noise that launching new shows does.  They also have episodes that are self-starters like THE SIMPSONS "Tree House of Horror" or guest star appearances that bring eyeballs despite the shows' age.  Fox, although having a tough time the past few seasons, is still primed to launch the next EMPIRE or a handful of sitcoms that stations/streamers will need for fresh inventory in years to come.   There really aren't many big new sitcoms in the pipeline for syndication.  The other broadcasters have wisely stuck with the familiar, cobbling together schedules with relatively few holes.  Who would have guessed a few years ago that The CW line-up is virtually airtight with needs for fewer than a half-dozen new shows?  Or that NBC turned the tide shoring up Chicago dramas, THIS IS US, THE VOICE and other shows that have made their schedule rock solid?  CBS has gone against all odds with BIG BANG THEORY and procedurals that have surpassed ten years on the air and still are going strong.  If anything, it's Fox's turn for its new EMPIRE or NEW GIRL.  And it would be wise to not walk away from the coins invested in this slot machine.

As streaming begins to compete with itself with the sheer volume of product, it seems like cable may be hurting more than broadcast.   When cords are cut, the free broadcast networks-- and their natural modern expansions to their own streaming brands (CBS All Access, Disney) provide stability for an overwhelmed consumer.  There are those of us who are obsessed with the television industry that forget that there is a country of "non-pros" who come home after a day at work and build habitual viewing.   Sometimes they will search, and sometimes they will watch what is on now the way a restaurant presents its "specials of the day."   The networks are morphing, and newer generations don't have the attachment to invest financially, but when the dust settles, there has to be some asylum where viewers don't have to make choices if they aren't interested in doing so. Traditional networks are family where many of us may stray to check out the exciting new things out there in life.  But many of these exciting new things will be short-run friendships that come and go.  We return to family.

I realize some of this may be biased, being a long-time viewer that loves many new shows yet remains loyal to mainstays like THE MIDDLE, SNL, THE FLASH, THE GOLDBERGS, et al.  For better or worse, there is an alchemy to why shows last.  Short-run shows have many gems but these long-timers build lifelong consumers.   We love THE SOPRANOS, SEX AND THE CITY and BREAKING BAD but how often do these shows live on today bringing in new customers?   There is an increasing compulsion to grade every show, every episode but that may just be among us diehard viewers.  Longtime performers will have weak episodes and weak seasons in the valleys to get back to the gems.  In the long run, does it matter if FRIENDS had a weak episode or a lesser season?  Television will always need evergreens.

When Fox launched in 1987, many thought it was a folly.  Some were surprised when it lasted.  It's unbelievable to realize that MARRIED... WITH CHILDREN and THE SIMPSONS gave the Big 3 a run for its money when the network was only two years old.   History has shown us that believing in the potential established brands provides often pays off in the long run.