In a few weeks, the broadcast network fall schedules will be announced. To those of us who remain interested, it is
an exciting time to watch strategic moves.
Last year seemed relatively unexciting not only because it feels like
the world has moved on to scheduling its own shows, but the
networks also played it safe. ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox and The CW made few moves while relying on returning series. It was the right decision. Stability is a smart way to go at this time. Original programs still brand a network. It’s important to retain brand loyalty by making
it easy for fans to find the premieres of their favorite shows.
Viewers
still complain that there are
too many interruptions with repeats and pre-emptions. Similarly, shows can be moved without getting
a proper chance. So, with the need for
stability, is there a place for big strategic moves? Nobody asked me, but I believe that moves
help. I’ve been watching the fall “squares”
move for a long time. Often, my fall
schedule predictions are wrong but sometimes I like my guesses better than what
is announced. You will see various
websites guessing the fall schedule in the weeks to come, so what’s one more?
I begin with Sunday, the most-viewed night of the week, where competition here is
fierce. Yet, more viewers come to the
tent on Sunday. Broadcast networks still have an
advantage with football and long-time hits like “60 Minutes” and “The Simpsons.” ABC needs the most work, having shifted from
dramas to reality programs last season.
I think “Shark Tank” and another reality/game show at 10pm is still the way
to go, thereby counter-programming the many cable channels with scripted dramas. I’ve been waiting for a long time for the
other networks to bring more comedy back to Sundays like Fox has done. “Speechless” has a loyal following while being
a comfortable family follow-up to “America’s Funniest Home Videos.” It could launch a new comedy at 8:30.
By the
way, I will not be identifying which new shows should be on the fall schedule
since it’s pointless having not seen them. That said, the high-profile revival/reboots
have a good chance this fall so I think CBS should take a shot with the new “Magnum,
P.I.” after NFL and “60 Minutes.” One
more slight change to Sunday: I’d like to see the broad comedy “L.A. to Vegas”
get a shot after “The Simpsons” at 8:30.
The CW
will return to Sundays for the first time in many years. I would move the indefatigable “Supernatural”
to 8 to make some noise, with a new show at 9.
Monday is
also heavily watched. Most of the
networks are fairly stable here. The 10
PM slot has been deteriorating across the week so I think “The Good Doctor”
should stay there. Sometimes, a hit show
should be left alone to flourish into a bigger hit show.
Fox needs
a home for comedy outside of Sundays so I would try Mondays. “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” could be sacrificed
against the 8:00 hits but it would keep the show on the air. “The Mick” would be a wild alternative to the
9:00 shows. New comedies at 8:30 and
9:30.
“Legends of Tomorrow” has moved across the week too many times already so I would return it on Mondays but after “Supergirl” at 8.
CBS clearly has to make changes with its once-dominant comedy night on Mondays. Since moving “Big Bang Theory” to the lucrative Thursday line-up years ago, comedy has never quite recovered on Mondays. The “Murphy Brown” revival would be best found in its signature slot at 9 to launch a new show at 9:30. I think it’s time to rip up most of the shows that haven’t worked on this night (bring back “Superior Donuts” mid-season). The question is how to bridge the broad comedy of “Kevin Can Wait” at 8:30 leading into the topical comedy of “Murphy Brown.” I’m reluctant to move “Mom” to 8:30, which would be a perfect fit. Perhaps, a new comedy will work. Likewise, “Scorpion” has struggled at 10, so shift “Bull” over from Tuesdays and bring back “Scorpion” mid-season. The night also can be jump-started with a few "BBT" originals on Mondays as in seasons past.
NBC’s “The
Voice” has launched many new dramas at 10.
I would think this fall is no exception.
“Roseanne”
has been a surprise hit for Tuesdays so it really needs to be used to launch a
new comedy at 8:30. “Fresh off the Boat” could stabilize the weak 9:30
slot. 10:00 has been a death slot for
new shows, so shift “Designated Survivor” over from Wednesdays because the
other networks are competitive at that hour.
Again, using big hits to launch new shows is the way to go and moving “Bull”
out would allow a new show between “NCIS” and “NCIS: New Orleans.” “This Is Us” on NBC and “The Flash” on The
CW should also lead into new series.
Fox is the
troubled net on Tuesdays. Comedy series
have crumbled here over the years so I say start fresh with an all-new night of
action beginning with “The Gifted.” “Lucifer”
could be held for mid-season. If your
eyes rolled at the Monday comedy line-up, here’s where it pays off even more
with a more stable Tuesday.
“The
Goldbergs” is now often the most-watched comedy on Wednesdays so I would think
it has earned the 8:30 slot for its spin-off.
Keep the 9:00 hour stable and launch a new drama at 10 on ABC. Over at CBS, “Seal Team” could slide to 10 to
allow a new drama to be launched after “Survivor.” The CW could launch a new drama following “Riverdale.” NBC and Fox should stay the course on a
difficult night. See, that was easy.
Thursday has been falling into place for the networks over the years. CBS has juggernaut “Big Bang Theory” at
8. There has been discussion whether to
move hit “Young Sheldon” away from 8:30.
I see it as the heir apparent for 8:00 so let’s leave a night that works
alone. Again, “Mom” could go to Mondays
but even if you moved “Sheldon” to 9, very little else has worked after “BBT.” Likewise, ABC has a line-up that works, even
though “Scandal” has moved on. One thing
that should be remembered: if you move around shows, you need to keep some
nights intact.
Fox had a
surprise hit with “9-1-1” mid-season and should lead off Thursday where the ad
dollars are in play. With long-timer “Supernatural”
moved in my Sunday scenario, “Black Lightning” is a growing hit for CW that would be the perfect lead-in for “Arrow.”
NBC has
finally gotten a solid comedy night. “Will
& Grace” should launch a new show at 9:30, and I believe, a new drama at
10. That’s a total of three new dramas for NBC if
there are worthy pilots. If not, “Chicago
Fire” could stay at 10.
On
Fridays, I think “Chicago Fire” (or “Chicago Med”) would be the strongest 9 PM
show for NBC in years. Fox could return
“The Orville” at 9. CBS and CW remain with the status quo but
soon, those CW low-rated dramas will be gone.
ABC has
work to do on Fridays. I would go with 2
new dramas (or if gun shy about Sunday comedies, move “Speechless” for a comedy
hour at 8.) A light drama like the “Greatest
American Hero” revival at 8 might work, too.
This would give ABC a possible total of three new dramas if the pilots
warrant. I realize Friday isn’t a
preferred spot for new shows but a marketing focus could bring attention, while
not shaking up the rest of the week too much. Saturdays
remain not much of an issue.
For those
keeping track, my moves result in:
ABC: 3 new
dramas, 3 new comedies, 3 moved shows (2 on new nights)
CBS: 3 new
dramas, 3 new comedies, 2 moved shows (1 on new night)
NBC: 3 new
dramas, 1 new comedy, 1 moved show (1 on new night)
FOX: 2 new
dramas, 2 new comedies, 4 moved shows (all on new nights)
CW: 2 new
dramas, 3 moved shows (2 on new nights)
In
summary, there is opportunity to benefit from big moves:
ABC Fridays/Sundays
ABC Fridays/Sundays
CBS
Mondays
NBC
Thursdays
FOX
Mondays/Tuesdays/Thursdays
CW
Thursdays/Sundays
I’ll be comparing my thoughts to the schedules in May. There will be disappointment, there will be moves that are impressive. I'll get a lot wrong. That’s the game of the Squares.
