RARE ROSEANNE PROMO 1988

LEAPING TOO SOON AND TOO OFTEN

On this date in 1989, "Quantum Leap" debuted with a Sunday night movie premiere.  The show has always had a loyal fan-base.  What many don't recall is that it was a surprise second-season renewal.  Three airings on Wednesdays at 10 saved the show and turned out to be the only time slot that worked for this cult favorite.  This excerpt from my Kindle Single about my days as an NBC page recalls a time when not only was the renewal a surprise, but "QL" was struggling in season two against fellow quality dramas "Wiseguy" and "China Beach."  When asked my two cents, I suggested a family-friendly 8:00 slot, which was a common thought at the time.  When it was attempted in 1990 and 1992, it only proved fans liked their show where it was.  But then, I was among those surprised that the anthology format was going to last.

I arrived in California for the first time at the end of October, 1989, having lined up three or four interviews a day at NBC.  After locating the west coast page lounge, I “camped out” in sort of a mirror universe, complete with our east coast group picture on the wall.  My suit stood out like a sore thumb around the much more casual Burbank office style.   Hanging out in the NBC commissary (made infamous by bad food jokes by Johnny Carson and Bob Hope), I kept a log of my meetings in a notebook.  There was a pay phone outside to call home and internal phones to make appointments. 

Brandon Tartikoff was my first meeting that Monday.   I was greeted by his assistants whom I had previously spoken, and was escorted to an “auxiliary guest office.”  Although disappointed that I wasn’t brought into Tartikoff’s real office, I wonder if the guest office was later made infamous in 1994 when Jay Leno listened in on executive phone calls about his future on “The Tonight Show.”  Tartikoff soon entered, casually dressed in a sweater, and greeted me with familiarity from our few encounters in New York.  He had been working out some details regarding a live “Night of 100 Stars III” that would air the following May.  I told him of my background as a student of television.  He wondered if I had any relatives in the business, but I had not.  He asked if there was an area of programming in which I was most interested.  He had previously met some young people who wanted to enter development, current programming and such.  Without hesitation, I responded “scheduling.”  I had spent my life following the strategies of the then-four networks.  Besides, there weren’t many other people I had met who also followed the schedule.  Most of my page friends wanted to get into sports, news or entertainment programs. 

Tartikoff flipped over one of my resumes and scribbled the names of five of the newer NBC shows on the back: “Sister Kate,” “Mancuso, FBI,” “Hardball,” “Quantum Leap” and “Midnight Caller.”  Three of them were brand new fall shows.  The time-travel drama, “Quantum Leap” is easily the most recognizable of the quintet.  I wondered why he hadn’t written down the new Mel Brooks comedy “The Nutt House,” but later that day, I learned from a USA Today newspaper that it was the first cancellation of the season. 

That fall, “Quantum” went into its second season and was a bit of a surprise renewal.  It struggled on Friday nights early that spring as the replacement for fellow Universal drama, “Miami Vice.”  East coast execs would look at the overnights and ask “when can we get “Vice” back in there?”  With the series finale looming, “Vice” wound up replacing “Quantum” on Fridays after it had aired three times.  (Incidentally, “Vice” wrapped things up with a finale and still had four unaired episodes that didn’t broadcast until later.)  “Quantum” then ran three times on Wednesday nights at 10:00 where it did well in the 18-49 demographics.  It had only aired twice when it was announced as renewed for the fall schedule.  That fall, it didn’t set the world on fire on Wednesdays (competing with two other quality dramas, “Wiseguy” on CBS and “China Beach” on ABC).  Tartikoff asked me to write a few paragraphs about the five shows and send it to his office.  In my paper, I said to give “Quantum” which felt like an early-evening show, a couple of shots at Sundays at 8:00.  To me, the anthology format of the show to be like roulette.  If you liked the life Sam Beckett jumped into that week, fine.  If you didn’t like that life or the time period, you might not watch.  A Sunday tryout should show if there was interest and if not, pull the plug.  I was wrong, as it slowly built a loyal audience on Wednesdays and ran five seasons.  But, as I suspected, it was tested at 8:00 on Fridays and Tuesdays in the years to follow but it never did as well as in its Wednesday slot.

          That week in Burbank, I met with various executives in comedy, drama, late night, children’s programs, research and (the now extinct) movies-for-television.  Let’s cut to the chase.  I didn’t get a job.  There were two assistant positions I had applied for, as those assistants had been promoted.  Although there was no idea how to find a place to live and start working within the month, I was game.  I didn’t even have a credit card yet and had never rented a car.  I told the executives, some of whom went on to be network presidents, about my meeting with Tartikoff and my “scheduling assignment.”  Some drama executives shared their frustration about “Quantum Leap,” where they had received feedback that the handsome Scott Bakula never got the girl in the episodes.  In the far future, Bakula’s character was married but the female audience was hopeful that he would have romances (while inhabiting other people’s bodies).  

These rare promos aired the week before my 1989 visit to Burbank

and these aired after the show had moved to Fridays for the 1990/1991 season.

HOW WILL THE SHORT-LIVED SERIES BE REMEMBERED?

What is a show's legacy?  What will it take to make a show "evergreen" so viewers will find it for generations to come?  These are questions that occur to me in the era of "Peak TV."  This weekend, I binged a recent favorite, Judd Apatow's "Love" on Netflix.  It is concluding after three seasons and only 34 episodes.  I presume, as many current series do, they are wrapping the series having had an ending in mind.  Not every series has the sustenance to have a long run.  Since streaming services don't reveal its viewership figures, we don't know the viewership of "Love."  But even if the series ended on its own terms, even cancelled shows have had a history of being remembered.

Apatow, of course, is no stranger to short-run favorites having the top of the list, "Freaks and Geeks" which ran for one 18-episode season in 1999-2000 followed by "Undeclared" with 17 episodes in 2001-2002.  Even the highly-acclaimed "The Larry Sanders Show" from earlier in his career can still be elusive despite six seasons and 90 episodes.  The show won many awards, was considered one of the best comedies ever, but even on its original run on HBO, it was reported as low rated.  HBO kept it going because of its quality.  When it later aired in syndication on Bravo and IFC, the reruns didn't last long, either.

Look at even shows like "Lost," "Heroes," "Mad Men" and "Damages" which ran for multiple seasons at various success, now hardly in the zeitgeist.  How about "Dallas" and "Knots Landing" which aired for over a decade?  Some of these shows air on streaming services if you go looking for them.  What chance does a 34-episode series stand in being "found" by a new fan 20 years from now?

Streaming services have had many series of various lengths, but they proceed to emphasize original programs.  This was how earlier models of cable channels grew.  In the 90s, TV Land was a haven for forgotten gems.  In recent years, sub-channels such as Antenna TV, getTV and Decades have presented curated rarities such as variety shows, forgotten westerns or crime shows like Burt Reynolds in "Dan August."   But, as these channels progress, hits dominate.  Antenna has mostly familiar favorites like "Wings" and "Murphy Brown," getTV has "All in the Family" and "Sanford & Son" and Decades has had weekend-long marathons of shows like "Mary Tyler Moore" or even long-running oldies like "Our Miss Brooks."  They each have an oasis for some rarities, though.  I was reminded of the 1970s "The Comedy Shop" featuring stand-up comedians when I recently saw it on a Decades schedule.  The hopes are that the hits on the sub-channels will drive viewers to the exclusive shows.

Ten years ago, when I was programming the Chiller network, we aired a one-season wonder called "Profit" starring Adrian Pasdar from 1996.  During that time, the 2008 Writers' Strike was going on and original scripted programming was suspended.   By going after "Profit" fans at Entertainment Weekly, we were able to get publicity for the series as if it were a new series.  They had little else in television to report on during those days.  If 2018 is Peak TV, 2008 was Valley TV.  Chiller was on the air for only a year with little awareness, but we got an "A" rating for our program in a national magazine.  How will the word get out for "Profit" or its 2018 counterparts in the future?

It's likely that, as with cable, there may be more niche streaming services that will curate these kinds of shows.  But, years from now, there will be even more services competing!  Variety is wonderful but it will be a challenge to be "one-stop shopping" for those of us who forget even our own favorite short-lived shows.  Strategy will still be necessary to rotate and emphasize these shows.

Of course, there is also the chance the show will get revived as original programming.  Studios are currently trying to resurrect "The Greatest American Hero," "Get Christie Love!" and "Roswell" among others.  If they become new series, this would theoretically bring interest to the original series.

Have they revived "Love" yet?

THAT SHOULD HAVE WORKED!

As we approach the announcements of new fall schedules this May, we are reminded that viewers need guidance more than ever before.  There is always the temptation to spread the wealth as the volume of programming increases.  But there is a danger in damaging what is already working.

In 1982, TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT, a sitcom starring Ted Knight, was the #6 show in television, largely due to following the #4 show, THREE'S COMPANY on Tuesday nights at 9.  The bawdy comedy had over 22 million viewers!  Much like now, the network sitcom was struggling in 1982.  A number of ABC sitcoms had either ended (BARNEY MILLER) or were unexpectedly cancelled (MORK & MINDY, TAXI, BOSOM BUDDIES) leaving Thursday nights wide open.  It made a lot of sense that fall to move TOO CLOSE to Thursdays at 9 to anchor a night of new comedies.  Its competition that fall was NBC's CHEERS, which was occasionally the lowest-rated show of the week.  CHEERS was moved to 9:30 temporarily and went on for eleven seasons.  TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT was cancelled by ABC in 1983 after three seasons.  CBS's strong action series, MAGNUM, P.I. and SIMON & SIMON put an end to the ABC sitcom block very quickly.  Matter of fact, ABC didn't have a hit Thursday series after this until GREY'S ANATOMY was moved there in 2006.   TOO CLOSE did return a few years later in first-run syndication for three more years, ensuring enough episodes for syndication.  Would it have thrived on ABC had it moved back to Tuesdays as the network did with LAVERNE & SHIRLEY in 1980?  We'll never know. 

 

It wasn't enough to move a hit show to help another night.  As the CBS shows proved (and GREY'S), anticipating the successful genre of the day is more important when re-locating viewer favorites.   In 1982, action shows were on the rise.

Another case study would be KING OF THE HILL, which in 1998, was the #15 show with over 16 million viewers.  This animated comedy was launched on Sundays at 8:30 after THE SIMPSONS and was probably the most successful show ever to follow THE SIMPSONS.  In 1998, you guessed it, KOTH was moved in its third season to Tuesdays at 8 to anchor a new comedy night for Fox.  It failed against mega-hit HOME IMPROVEMENT and growing drama hit, JAG.  However, KOTH returned to Sundays where it went on for a total of thirteen seasons and 259 episodes.  Sometimes it's important to nurture a hit show instead of chasing new hits.

We are currently in an era where the 30-minute sitcom hit is a rare thing.  YOUNG SHELDON has worked out well this season, and obviously BIG BANG THEORY has grown into a mega-hit that may be a dinosaur.  Will we ever see a 12-season 24-episode-a-year comedy again?  It's still difficult to "transplant" shows to nights where a network doesn't have a stranglehold on a comedy block.  BLACK-ISH is no longer protected having moved to Tuesday nights from Wednesdays following MODERN FAMILY.  And Fox scrambles with newer shows on Tuesdays and hopes that SIMPSONS and FAMILY GUY on Sundays will still bring viewers to something new like GHOSTED and LA TO VEGAS.

Finding series is still important in today's streaming age.  Even if you are a loyal subscriber to a channel or service, there isn't always a clean map of what that programmer provides.  As helpful as "if you like this, you may like this" suggestions are, there really isn't a master-list of everything a streaming provider offers.

And now, like on linear television, you may not have time to find a show in time to help its survival.

At least one streaming comedy series has had producers ask that fans make sure they binge a number of episodes as soon as possible so that the show gets another season.  Those shows are in danger. It's looking like streaming isn't as ratings-proof as we had thought, which is a shame when it appeared like there was a haven for quality shows while they find their footing.   Shows like the critically-praised ONE DAY AT A TIME need viewer support.

Counter-programming isn't enough when a programmer thinks a comedy might be the way to fight off a hit drama.  At times, it may doom a show.  Viewers don't always follow a favorite show (whether it be linear scheduling or in the streaming wilderness).  The show needs to be in familiar territory and disassociated away from hits on the rise that could be counter-programming . It wasn't until MAGNUM and JAG were older hits that new comedies on other networks were able to challenge them.  The 1982 comedy scare didn't get turned around until 1984.  We see in recent years that revival shows like WILL & GRACE and ROSEANNE are not coincidentally placed on the nights for where they were best known.  This is not only to help the show-- but to also boost that night.

In the streaming world, it may be increasingly important that comedies need to be paired with known hits for consumer awareness.  For example, Netflix has FULLER HOUSE so they've made a four-camera sitcom work, and those fans need to become more aware of ONE DAY AT A TIME.  Networks have long marketed their shows a block in advertising.  Maybe it's time to have "high tides raise all ships."

SATURDAY NIGHTS COULD HAVE ENDED SEINFELD

This week, “The Goldbergs” aired a spin-off pilot about the 1990s.  It’s been quite awhile since a network has done that.  It got me thinking of an another unsold pilot that aired back on July 5, 1980something…

I’ve made “location, location, location” a recurring theme of this blog.  Even though viewers now have the luxury of watching their favorite shows when they want, the survival of these shows still relies on strategy.   Networks don’t premiere shows on Saturdays for a reason, and even streaming services don’t often, either.  Very few comedies survive on nights where there are no hit comedies.  This season’s new comedies “Me, Myself and I” and “The Mayor” didn’t show signs of life alongside other hit comedies on their scheduled nights.  They weren’t around long enough to watch at your leisure.

Back in a four-network universe (where Fox was still merely a weekend programming service), I had the good fortune of seeing how the top strategists would work with the research department to see where shows would have the best chance of succeeding.  For example, in the summer of 1990, even though these veteran comedies were cancelled, NBC ran estimates on how shows like “ALF” and “My Two Dads” would perform on either Sunday, Monday or Saturdays at 8.  They would mix and match potential nights to get an idea.  Although these shows were cancelled, they wanted to see how they could get the best numbers even in the dog days of summer to boost the network.  And, if something did very well, maybe they would bring a show back mid-season. 

“Seinfeld” had aired as an unsold pilot on July 5, 1989 on a Wednesday night following a “Night Court” repeat.  Almost universally, pilots that aired in the summer (“burn-offs”) would never be seen again.  But, as legend goes, NBC execs liked “The Seinfeld Chronicles” and late-night and specials senior VP Rick Ludwin offered to produce four half-hour episodes out of his budget instead of producing a Bob Hope special.  “Seinfeld,” as it would be later known, returned in the summer of 1990.  (The title was changed after an ABC sitcom “The Marshall Chronicles” failed.) 

Herein lies another tale of the scheduling squares no one else would remember.  “Seinfeld” was scheduled for Thursdays at 9:30 after “Cheers” in May, once the traditional television season was over and summer reruns had begun.  But, schedulers like to tinker.  I don’t know how serious this scenario was, but at one point, it was considered that “Seinfeld” would run after a short-lived Carol Burnett sketch show on Saturdays at 10:30 so that a returning mid-season show “F.M.” (with “Airplane!” star Robert Hays) could air after “Cheers.”  Fortunately, that move didn’t stick and "F.M." went to Saturdays.  It was cancelled that summer.

“Seinfeld” did very well when it debuted on May 31, 1990 after “Cheers,” but few remember its early potential since the show historically didn’t become a hit until it aired after the last episodes of “Cheers” in 1993.   It premiered at #3 for the week.

It stumbled for a couple years on Wednesdays after “Night Court,” then back to Thursdays when other shows wrapped and then back to Wednesdays where it eventually battled juggernaut “Home Improvement.”  Critics loved the show and it developed a cult following as it struggled the first three seasons.  But the first four episodes (followed by a repeat of the 1989 pilot) ranked in the Nielsen top 5 in the summer of 1990, of course among most everything else in reruns.  It always could have been a hit if given the right time slot.

Thanks to USA Today clippings online, here are the four weeks of ratings for “Seinfeld.”  Back then, the USA Today Wednesday ratings chart was how tv fans would see how their favorite shows were doing.

I will always remember overhearing a “watercooler” chat about the pilot.  Senior VP David Wedeck was talking about sports in a planning meeting and asked his co-workers if they remembered the scene from that recent “Seinfeld Chronicles” pilot. Seinfeld had recorded a ballgame and tried to prevent his neighbor Kramer from telling him the score.  Of course, Kramer ruined the game for Seinfeld by blurting out a key play Seinfeld hadn’t seen yet.  The execs laughed about what was probably the first “Seinfeld” word-of-mouth buzz.

This encouraged me to be one of the show’s first fans.  The comedian had been on many Letterman shows doing stand-up at that point, as well as the “7^th Anniversary Special” that I got to work on as a page.   So, when word came out that NBC was doing a pilot with Seinfeld, I was happy to hear it.  While answering phones in the programming department, I would occasionally answer calls from producer Larry David, who had been a writer a few years earlier on “Saturday Night Live.”  He was keeping in touch with his old east coast co-workers at NBC about his new pilot taping in Los Angeles.  Although the show did not make the fall schedule, I made sure we taped “The Seinfeld Chronicles” pilot when it aired on July 5, 1989.  I really liked the rapport between real/fictional stand-up Seinfeld and his friend George (played by Jason Alexander.)  Their banter reminded me of hanging out with male friends at the diner talking about life and relationships.  In 1989, there weren’t many shows like this.  As I mentioned earlier, there were funny, identifiable real-life moments like Kramer (then named Kessler) ruining the ballgame for Seinfeld, or that a girl was coming to stay with Seinfeld but he didn’t really know if this meant they were dating or not.  I even managed to save these original press releases for the show.

Getting that Thursday night exposure in the summer of 1990 was salvation for “Seinfeld.”  I was happy to learn a few years back that someone else remembered how it could have been destined for Saturdays at 10:30 P.M.  In Jennifer Armstrong’s book, “Mary and Lou and Rhoda and Ted,” producer Allan Burns reminisced how there was a big difference in getting that Thursday slot instead of the Saturday death slot.

He was a producer of the aforementioned “F.M.”

TV'S MVPs TO THE RESCUE

I love to see the pieces of the scheduling puzzle being used proactively.  Here’s a situation that’s nothing new: networks, faced with staggering competition, have relied on their big guns to help boost other shows.  CBS has regularly used reruns of hits “The Big Bang Theory” and “Young Sheldon” on Monday nights to help its newer comedies, while ABC recently scheduled “Modern Family” on Tuesdays at 9:30 as a bridge between “Black-ish” and the new “Kevin (Probably) Saves the World.”  This triage certainly makes sense considering the power of these hits that still reach audiences most broadcast shows still don’t.  In the case of “Big Bang,” the network has ordered three runs of each episode which gives them many leftovers to use from the previous season.  I would say that even if there weren’t so many episodes on the shelf, this is the time to use them.  There would be more upside now even if there weren’t reruns left for the late summer weeks.   These hits are among the few shows that do perform in the summer, but in-season needs the assist now more than ever.

As mentioned, this is nothing new, but remains deft strategizing to watch.  Regularly, networks “encore” series in the same week usually during the first weeks of a new series, or to plug holes in the lower-watched Friday and Saturday nights.  Fox is doing this with “9-1-1” and “X-Files” on Fridays and The CW is running the “Black Lightning” pilot again three days after its premiere.  CBS has had a long practice of putting series favorites on their “Crimetime Saturday” line-up.  Networks pay for two runs of these shows (sometimes three) so you’ll see Fox air primetime series like “Hell’s Kitchen” in Saturday late night or NBC using “Will & Grace” encores on Saturdays at 8 to lead into “Superstore” on the east coast and to allow an 8:30 start for “Saturday Night Live” on the west coast.  Likewise, “Saturday Night Live” has been coming to the rescue with primetime repeats going back to the late 70s.  The other painful truth is that if these hits don’t help the new shows, they will likely still be the face of the networks in years to come. 

Over the years, the hits have been called in to replace the quickly cancelled.   Back in 1998 during the final weeks of “Seinfeld,” NBC used third-runs of episodes on Wednesdays at 8:30 to bridge fellow sitcoms “NewsRadio” and “3^rd Rock from the Sun.”  The dear, departed WB Network branded first-season repeats in a regular Sunday slot as “Beginnings” when they aired “7^th Heaven,” “Gilmore Girls” and “Smallville,” among others.  See your favorites from the beginning!  This was being done long before early series episodes were made available online.

Years ago, weaker shows would be yanked for sweeps periods.  It wasn’t always fair to the 8:30 shows on Must See TV but added “Friends” repeats were evergreens.  Often, the new shows had already failed to benefit from their lead-ins and were on life support, anyway.

The exciting thing is to see new hits that become viable pieces on other nights of the schedule.  “The Good Doctor,” “S.W.A.T.” and “SEAL Team” are not only showing up on special nights for additional exposure, they are also helping other nights.  “Young Sheldon” recently had a three-episode binge on a Monday night.

Where do schedules go from here?  It will be interesting to see the impact of the “Roseanne” reboot leading off Tuesday nights into the final season of “The Middle.”  Both shows could be used to fortify other nights with encores.  “The Simpsons” and “Family Guy” repeats could augment weeknights where they rarely visit outside of Sunday night.   As broadcast networks pick up fewer shows and rely on returning favorites, we may see a lot more familiar faces multiple nights a week.

FALL 1997 GUESSES - 20TH ANNIVERSARY EDITION

Long before ratings websites filled up with viewer scheduling comments, I had been sending out schedule analyses during job searches.  While in college, I had sent the president of NBC, Brandon Tartikoff, one of these analyses and got an invitation to meet with him.  I was still living in New York then, but a couple years later, I made the trek to Burbank.  Perhaps, someday, I will dig up the "homework" he gave me: scheduling ideas for five new series.   I had some good ideas in there, but gave QUANTUM LEAP little chance to survive.  Oops!

Last night, I found this 1997 analysis that I mailed out (yes, with the post office and stamps!  Corporate e-mail only worked internally back then.)   It's a fun look back at a six-broadcast-network universe.

Thanks for indulging this relic from my personal files.   This was written after screening the fall's new pilots (on vhs, second and third-generation quality) so at least, I was on target as an early fan of ALLY McBEAL, before it became a national phenomenon.

 KEN HOMMEL FALL 1997 ANALYSIS  6/1/97

MONDAY

CBS: RAYMOND is the key program in maintaining CBS’ traditional Monday comedy line-up.  This may be their weakest line-up in a decade.  COSBY and CYBILL have both peaked.  GEORGE & LEO will help but, unfortunately, is not an innovative program.  BROOKLYN SOUTH is deserving of this slot but will need more female appeal to counter FOOTBALL.  There also will be the inevitable comparisons to HILL STREET BLUES and NYPD BLUE.  The Brooklyn neighborhood should become a major “character” in this series to distinguish the series from its predecessors where the cops weren’t necessarily “from the neighborhood”.

NBC: A bold move with similar, yet mediocre, programs.  FIRED UP and NAKED TRUTH are the weak links but retooling and stronger supporting casts could help (SUSAN needs such help, too).   The leads of FIRED UP should not be adversaries or roommates, for that matter.  This series could provide a ‘90's look at starting a business and making one’s own living during times of uncertain employment.  NAKED TRUTH needs to go back to its first season “celebrity tabloid” stories with a more determined, sexy Tea Leoni.  This could become a comfortable night of familiar faces, posing a real threat to CBS’ line-up.  I don’t see this strategy failing, even if one or two shows need replacing mid-season.   I anticipate a theme night cross-over in November.  DATELINE also will be a competitive factor for second place at 10 PM.

ABC: TIMECOP is a good companion to FOOTBALL and could be a long-awaited successor to the MACGYVER audience in this hour.

FOX: MELROSE PLACE should continue to reinvigorate the show with new cast members.   ALLY McBEAL is fresh, fast-paced and highly imaginative.   Calista Flockhart could become a star with strong appeal to men and women.  David E. Kelley has crafted a definitive Fox series that should do well after MELROSE PLACE.  By mid-season, it could even attract viewers tired of the waning performance of CYBILL.  

UPN and WB: Both have made in-roads and were wise to remain mostly with returning series.

TUESDAY

CBS: JAG, a surprise renewal, has a shot at second-place behind NBC but it’s too bad CBS didn’t have a stronger starter in its development this year.  (Even a half-decent HAWAII FIVE-O might have enlisted a bigger audience.)  MICHAEL HAYES and DELLAVENTURA will be replaced by the TUESDAY MOVIE by mid-season.  HAYES will get a new slot eventually but DELLAVENTURA may not deserve one.

NBC: Here are four smart, upscale comedies which may be more viewer-friendly than the sometimes inconsistent Thursday line-up.   MAD ABOUT YOU will dominate and resuscitate NEWSRADIO, which deserved a Thursday slot but will fit in well in its original time slot.  FRASIER’s quality and appeal could finally upstage HOME IMPROVEMENT.   JUST SHOOT ME can also thrive as it establishes an identity among all the other workplace sitcoms.  DATELINE will benefit from its strong lead-in and an aging NYPD BLUE.

ABC: Falling back into mistakes made in the ‘80's after the departure of HAPPY DAYS and THREE’S COMPANY, the network has left itself wide open to lose its signature night.  SOUL MAN will need a more established lead-in (SPIN CITY?) and the new comedies will have to be blockbusters to support HOME IMPROVEMENT in its seventh season.  The 8:00 hour will crumble by November sweeps.  NYPD BLUE may lose some more mileage but should be a solid performer if the writing holds up.

FOX: The movie will continue to be only a rare threat in the case of major theatrical premieres.

UPN: CLUELESS should revitalize the line-up and gain from ABC’s failure in this hour.  The all-comedy line-up could make slow but steady in-roads for the network.

WB: DAWSON’S CREEK has a chance of grabbing the younger audience but will take a while to catch on, especially if CLUELESS does well.  Its content is better suited for a 9 PM slot.  THREE will have a tough time against older but still vital competition.

WEDNESDAY

CBS: THE NANNY has done impossible by winning this timeslot for CBS but will still be vulnerable to strong competition.  Fortunately, the other networks haven’t provided any strong contenders this season.  MURPHY BROWN will struggle having long overstayed its welcome.  GUMBEL could become a viable economical alternative to DREW vs. 3^rd ROCK.  CHICAGO HOPE will struggle against time period veterans, LAW & ORDER and PRIMETIME LIVE.  Like NORTHERN EXPOSURE and PICKET FENCES before it, CHICAGO may fade.

NBC: TONY DANZA has a chance at getting second place, helping BUILT TO LAST, 3^RD ROCK and WORKING whittle away at ABC.  LAW & ORDER should continue a solid performance.

ABC: Again, a very weak 8-9 hour.  SPIN CITY is woefully misscheduled at this early hour and still needs nurturing.  This is the same mistake NBC made last season with NEWSRADIO.   It should regain a 9:30 spot either on Tuesday or Wednesday.  If it must be at 8, it would do better on Tuesday where viewers are familiar with it.  DHARMA AND GREG desperately needs a new name but if the buzz is good, could do fairly well at 8:30.   It may deserve the Tuesday at 9:30 slot if HILLER AND DILLER is bumped.  GRACE UNDER FIRE could come back at 8.   DREW CAREY will have real competition for first place with 3^RD ROCK and ELLEN will continue to fade.  PRIMETIME LIVE could have some problems at 10 if LAW & ORDER benefits from stronger lead-ins.

FOX: Another solid night.  90210 could bounce back for second and third place in the hour while PARTY OF FIVE will at best reach third against the battling comedies.  Still, a night with loyal viewers and few repeats!

UPN: Also a good move with returning series but THE SENTINEL still isn’t a high-profile show.  It could pay to flip VOYAGER to 8 away from 3^rd ROCK and DREW.

WB: Again, returning series with WAYANS at 9:30 outstaying its welcome.

  

THURSDAY

CBS: A safe counterprogramming line-up of PROMISED LAND/DIAGNOSIS/48 HOURS.  However, PROMISED LAND would have been a bigger success if it had been moved to ANGEL’s old Saturday 9 PM slot.

NBC: FRIENDS reaches a crucial year as its continues to pass its prime.  However, its competition should do less damage than its own past reputation.  The show needs to reenergize with more interesting situations and relationships and sharper writing.  UNION SQUARE may do well but could be another show unworthy of the Thursday line-up.  Never underestimate SEINFELD.  The show still demonstrates more creativity in its later years than most shows ever do.  VICTORIA’S CLOSET will be a welcome addition at 9:30 and ER will continue to decimate the competition although it should add a female lead to replace Sherry Stringfield.

ABC: NOTHING SACRED will be quickly sacrificed but CRACKER may be a good counter-programming move.  The 20/20 Thursday edition was a great idea in the wake of DATELINE’s success.

FOX: Very smart of the network to start over on this night as NBC’s line-up ages.  These may not be the shows to do the job and I think a four-comedy attack would have been stronger and more promotable.  413 HOPE STREET will fail quickly.

UPN: Another good move, as the Sci-Fi movie can appeal to the male audience as syndicated series have done for years.  It also allows new franchises to be developed.

FRIDAY

CBS: The TGIF clone will be an expensive failure as its audience has already grown up and gone out on Friday night.  The new generation of kids will watch SABRINA and stay with ABC and its newer efforts.   Also, it appears that there are not any other “TGIF” type shows in reserve at CBS when some of these shows fail.  NASH will also suffer from this lead-in at 10.  Perhaps MICHAEL HAYES could get a shot at 10 PM with NASH at 9.

NBC: It was an unexpected move to jettison UNSOLVED for a new show, especially the derivative PLAYERS, without ordering UNSOLVED as a mid-season back-up for here or even Saturday night.  It was wise to try something new in this hour but PLAYERS will probably not survive.  DATELINE and HOMICIDE will benefit as ABC and CBS clash.

ABC: SABRINA’s move to 8:00 was an expected and smart move.  BOY MEETS WORLD, having failed at 9:30, conservatively remains where it does best.   GENIE and TEEN ANGEL will beat CBS but may not be what ABC needs to regain its popularity on this night.  Back-ups should be developed even if it means aiming at a slightly older audience (ala FRIENDS and DREW).   AMERICA’S FUNNIEST HOME VIDEOS may also be a consideration for mid-season here.  20/20 will continue to dominate.

FOX: VISITOR should help MILLENNIUM if the show improves creatively.  VISITOR could be second place in this hour. 

SATURDAY:

CBS: There will be stronger competition to “America’s Night of Television” this year as DR. QUINN limps along.  Perhaps EARLY EDITION will have a break-out sophomore year but the NBC “Thrillogy” will be a major threat.  WALKER will still dominate at 10.

NBC: If SLEEPWALKERS does well, the “Thrillogy” could really take off for NBC.  PRETENDER and PROFILER should grow into dependable performers.

ABC: The weak link here is TOTAL SECURITY which should really do a new first episode and bury the pilot later in the order.  C-16 requires a new name but could be a solid performer.  THE PRACTICE will have an uphill battle being such an intellectual program but could regain the “law and order” audience that enjoyed THE COMMISH in this slot for four years.  CRACKER would be a better lead-in for THE PRACTICE.

FOX: Same old line-up.  NEW YORK UNDERCOVER should go in at 9.

SUNDAY

CBS: A huge missed opportunity here by not replacing the movie with series.  EARLY EDITION and CHICAGO HOPE could have places in the top 20 on this night just as ANGEL moved into the top 10 last season.

NBC: An odd choice for MEN BEHAVING BADLY and JENNY to compete with the same audience as Fox in this hour.   It appears this is the one hour on which the Peacock has given up.  Perhaps even PLAYERS or another one hour drama here.

ABC: Except for blockbusters like “Toy Story”,  DISNEY will often settle for fourth place.

FOX: A strong line-up which may give Fox a second place position on this night.

WB: The returning shows will fade as they creep up earlier to the 7 PM death slot.  TOM will not do well and should flip with OCEAN BEACH.  Carol Leifer could give the WB a break-out adult comedy.

WHY FOX MATTERS

Last night, after reading a few articles about the potential Disney-Fox deal, I had to see if the skies were truly falling.   Television is experiencing seismic shifts where no one truly knows everything that will happen next.  Some articles are probably click-bait, some are possibly insightful analyses.  Could the fourth broadcast network radically change under Disney, or even go away?  We know that there is more tv than ever before and viewers are turning to streaming while smaller cable networks are quietly shuttering.  I decided to take a big picture look at how Fox, despite being in a rough patch, still provides a unique service to the television fan.  Whereas many new services are flooding their shelves with original programming, those businesses are building their services.  Fox, in its 30 years of experience, builds shows.

We all know what Fox is, from its early boldness with MARRIED... WITH CHILDREN and 90210 to its recent achievements like EMPIRE premiering strong, then building for seven weeks unlike any new show in over 30 years.  Similarly, there is FX, which is a dream come true for fans of quality television with FARGO, BETTER THINGS and THE PEOPLE VS. O.J. SIMPSON.   Fox, obviously, isn't as much of a boutique as its younger brother but still has a clear identity.   To attempt a modern analogy: if FX is Amazon Prime, Fox is Amazon, which is reliably accessible to the masses who haven't signed on for annual payments.

Now, as mentioned in articles, in addition to NFL contracts, there are long-term commitments at Fox with THE SIMPSONS and FAMILY GUY.   Also, they are likely to renew THE GIFTED as Disney/Marvel expands its television portfolio with X-Men spin-offs.  So, in some form, as television morphs, Fox will have some roots that are not easy to sever.  It was also mentioned that shows where there is urgency like reality-competition shows could take up more time slots.  Streaming can't compete with the shared experience right now.  I agree about reality potential, but never underestimate the durability of just one hit comedy or drama.  There's also speculation that Fox missed out by having their studio's new hit THIS IS US on NBC.   I think THIS IS US is a much more natural fit for NBC, just as NBCU comedies like BROOKLYN NINE NINE and THE MINDY PROJECT were better fits on FOX.  

At a glance, Fox is an incredibly efficient model for showcasing series.   They have no 10 PM slots to worry about at a time where DVR usage and other competition have made that hour terribly challenging for broadcast networks.   Fox also has the mainstays, THE SIMPSONS and FAMILY GUY which are testaments to habitual viewers and also male viewers who don't typically watch much scripted television.  

So, if we even put aside Friday and Saturday with reality, encores and sports (as well as the fluctuating Sun 7 PM hour), we are talking only ten hours to focus on between Sun-Thu 8-10 PM.   EMPIRE and STAR seem to have locked up Wednesdays for much of the season.  Warner Bros' LUCIFER and GOTHAM are steady performers likely to return, showing how other studios benefit airing on Fox.  BOB'S BURGERS also has mileage left in it, and signals that another animated series could be a unique builder for the network since the other four broadcasters have none.  Now a deal may keep Disney from using competitive product on FBC, but their own shows like AGENTS OF SHIELD and THE RUNAWAYS would likely get a wider reach by being associated with the FBC brand.  Genre shows sometimes clash with broader networks with different audiences (See SUPERGIRL on CBS or SHIELD on ABC, home of Shondaland dramas.)  Even their edgier Disney XD style animated series would get a more varied demographic on Fox.  Those cartoons aren't just for kids.

So, we are looking at only a few vacant hours where a network can focus on making noise about a few new shows, rather than having to sell every new season of every product that a streamer does.   The shows that build on broadcast are often long-term performers which will be needed for various platforms even if traditional viewing fades away in the next decade.   People will still want their 200 episodes of SEINFELD, FRIENDS, NCIS and THE BIG BANG THEORY to shuffle through, whether it be nightly or in binges.  These 10-episode seasons of newer series that might reach 50 episodes total, will likely not be evergreens.  Since content is king, studios will want these marathon performers that will still be watched 20 years from now.  Are there any shows that have burned brightly and then quickly ended which still have an evergreen presence?

The challenge, as always, is building new hits.  And despite their power, even THE SIMPSONS and FAMILY GUY have rarely grown new hits at 8:30 and 9:30.  But they don't require to make noise that launching new shows does.  They also have episodes that are self-starters like THE SIMPSONS "Tree House of Horror" or guest star appearances that bring eyeballs despite the shows' age.  Fox, although having a tough time the past few seasons, is still primed to launch the next EMPIRE or a handful of sitcoms that stations/streamers will need for fresh inventory in years to come.   There really aren't many big new sitcoms in the pipeline for syndication.  The other broadcasters have wisely stuck with the familiar, cobbling together schedules with relatively few holes.  Who would have guessed a few years ago that The CW line-up is virtually airtight with needs for fewer than a half-dozen new shows?  Or that NBC turned the tide shoring up Chicago dramas, THIS IS US, THE VOICE and other shows that have made their schedule rock solid?  CBS has gone against all odds with BIG BANG THEORY and procedurals that have surpassed ten years on the air and still are going strong.  If anything, it's Fox's turn for its new EMPIRE or NEW GIRL.  And it would be wise to not walk away from the coins invested in this slot machine.

As streaming begins to compete with itself with the sheer volume of product, it seems like cable may be hurting more than broadcast.   When cords are cut, the free broadcast networks-- and their natural modern expansions to their own streaming brands (CBS All Access, Disney) provide stability for an overwhelmed consumer.  There are those of us who are obsessed with the television industry that forget that there is a country of "non-pros" who come home after a day at work and build habitual viewing.   Sometimes they will search, and sometimes they will watch what is on now the way a restaurant presents its "specials of the day."   The networks are morphing, and newer generations don't have the attachment to invest financially, but when the dust settles, there has to be some asylum where viewers don't have to make choices if they aren't interested in doing so. Traditional networks are family where many of us may stray to check out the exciting new things out there in life.  But many of these exciting new things will be short-run friendships that come and go.  We return to family.

I realize some of this may be biased, being a long-time viewer that loves many new shows yet remains loyal to mainstays like THE MIDDLE, SNL, THE FLASH, THE GOLDBERGS, et al.  For better or worse, there is an alchemy to why shows last.  Short-run shows have many gems but these long-timers build lifelong consumers.   We love THE SOPRANOS, SEX AND THE CITY and BREAKING BAD but how often do these shows live on today bringing in new customers?   There is an increasing compulsion to grade every show, every episode but that may just be among us diehard viewers.  Longtime performers will have weak episodes and weak seasons in the valleys to get back to the gems.  In the long run, does it matter if FRIENDS had a weak episode or a lesser season?  Television will always need evergreens.

When Fox launched in 1987, many thought it was a folly.  Some were surprised when it lasted.  It's unbelievable to realize that MARRIED... WITH CHILDREN and THE SIMPSONS gave the Big 3 a run for its money when the network was only two years old.   History has shown us that believing in the potential established brands provides often pays off in the long run.  

"THE DAY THEY TOOK MY SHOW AWAY"

Reason alone to watch this week's MARK TWAIN PRIZE FOR DAVID LETTERMAN.

I've brought a clip.

2000-2001 PART II: MAKING HIT SHOWS MEGA-HITS

During the seismic shifts of the 2000-2001 season, new shows were taking the shared experience concept to a higher level.  Cable, home video and the internet were already luring the 21^st-century consumer away from network television.  It was especially thrilling to have new shows everyone was talking about.  

HBO later prided itself on the term "watercooler television."   Yes, before social media, we talked about we watched last night.

Two tactics were utilized to give audiences what they wanted, while adding to the networks’ revenue.   Some shows, like CSI, had come out of the gate as promising hits and were later moved where they could elevate to even bigger ratings.  The other tactic, involving the 1999 break-out, WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE, had a hit scheduled in multiple timeslots throughout the week.   Of course, both strategies were not brand new and continue to be patterns that networks use to retain viewers.

Schedulers, of course, had moved an emerging hit to make it a bigger hit a few years earlier with TOUCHED BY AN ANGEL and THE X-FILES.  Prior to this, many famous shows had been moved to help a struggling night, like FRASIER to Tuesdays in 1994 or when THE SIMPSONS went head-to-head with THE COSBY SHOW in 1990. These had been long-term strategies.  The hope was that an aging show can be eventually taken down over time.  These game-changers were moved in so that when the dominant show vacated, the younger hit would already be associated with its new night.  We’ve seen it backfire before (again, looking back to 1979 with MORK & MINDY taking on ARCHIE BUNKER’S PLACE).   Often, the moved shows never recover.  But, since they were growing, TOUCHED and X-FILES moved to Sunday nights (on CBS and FOX, respectively).  TOUCHED vacated a prize spot between DR. QUINN and WALKER on Saturdays and X-FILES had been an instant starter on Fridays.  They both ran for many more seasons. 

But, in retrospect, no shows adequately replaced these shows on Saturday and Friday.  CBS had moderately successful shows on Saturdays at 9 until a few years later, it was no longer profitable to run scripted dramas on that night.  Fox Friday has had a slew of shows that tried to match X-FILES, often from the sci-fi genre, but there was never a hit show for them on that night again.   More recently, THE BIG BANG THEORY moved to Thursdays at 8, became a bigger hit, but left vulnerability in the CBS' signature Monday comedy line-up.  Sometimes, the move comes with a price.

CBS VS MUST SEE TV

There had never a better time for CBS to take on NBC’s long dominance on Thursday nights in 2001.  “Must See TV” had lost SEINFELD and even FRASIER had moved out in favor of younger demos with WILL & GRACE in 2000.   CBS had premiered reality hit, SURVIVOR, the previous summer and there were expectations that season 2 would be used against Must See TV.  Thursday was a highly-viewed night where NBC’s competitors were often forced to counter-program as best they could, usually with older demo shows like DIAGNOSIS MURDER and MATLOCK.  Quite importantly, there was also additional revenue in advertising for motion pictures on Thursday nights that arrived in theaters on Fridays. 

CBS had high hopes for its remake of THE FUGITIVE, which had been a 1960s tv hit and 1990s movie smash.  It was scheduled in fall 2000 on Fridays at 8, where CBS had struggled for a decade.  The surprise came when the lesser-anticipated show, CSI debuted on Fridays at 9 and became a breakout hit.  SURVIVOR and CSI were moved to Thursdays in 2001 and changed everything for the network.  CBS has been a dominant player on that night ever since.  Both shows have had long runs in addition to many valuable CSI spin-off series.

Another memorable after-effect of the CBS move was NBC’s counter-attack.  FRIENDS at 8 was still a force to be reckoned with, so “Super-Sized” extra-length episodes were used to fight off SURVIVOR.  For two weeks, at 8:40 PM, live SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE WEEKEND UPDATE specials with Tina Fey and Jimmy Fallon were also produced.   Although there had been SNL repeats and anniversary specials in primetime for years, these topical live shows have been used as strategy many times ever since.   There was also a FRIENDS outtakes special:

CAN I PHONE A FRIEND?

The second tactic that season involved blanketing the schedule with a hit show, which was also nothing new.  In the 1960s, BATMAN ran twice a week and in the 1990s, networks used newsmagazines like DATELINE and 20/20 up to four-times-a-week.   These newsmagazines were far less expensive than scripted programming, were also familiar brands, and proved helpful to plug holes where the schedule was weak.   The holes were also the result of one-hour drama decline.  There were 90s mega-hits like ER and NYPD BLUE, and long-term hits like LAW & ORDER and JAG, but there were far fewer scripted dramas in those days.  (Also, there was less of a demand for drama reruns in syndication until LAW & ORDER became a rerun phenomenon on A&E.)  These 90s shows helped sustain the format and even lead cable networks to program new dramas.   

The unbelievable runaway success of MILLIONAIRE could not be overlooked.   It was first stripped during the summer of 1999, and came back even stronger in November 1999.  Eventually, shows like AMERICAN IDOL, DANCING WITH THE STARS or even repeats of cable reality shows were scheduled on multiple nights a week.  MILLIONAIRE engaged the nation so that audiences would come back night after night.  It made sense to build the schedule around MILLIONAIRE.  The show could lead in to new shows, giving them unparalleled exposure.

ABC’s aim was to emulate the five-nights-a-week strip of shows like JEOPARDY that maintained loyal followings for years.  However, game shows lose younger viewers as time goes on and MILLIONAIRE quickly lost appeal with a wide audience.

In hindsight, this has not been viewed as a good idea.  The show peaked much more quickly and ABC hadn’t ordered as many new scripted shows.  After MILLIONAIRE winded down, the network was left in the lurch for a few seasons.   No new shows benefited from the lead-ins and it wasn’t until 2004-2005 that ABC development provided fresh hits.   But, networks have to try new ideas.  There was a chance that, although the show does continue in syndication, it had no long-term potential for ABC primetime.  The network gave the audience what it wanted, then as cycles go, people move on to other things.  Sometimes, you have to run with a hit.  When BEVERLY HILLS 90210 heated up on Fox in its second season, the network added new episodes in the summer.  The seasons eventually became 34-35 episodes long.  You don’t know if a hit will last.  And those hits are needed to promote other shows.

FINAL ANSWER?

We have no way of knowing whether the scripted shows MILLIONAIRE displaced would have done any better.  Today, shows are stacked in multi-hour marathons.  Most shows are available at your fingertips to binge at your leisure.  MILLIONAIRE arrived just as LAW & ORDER had spun off SVU.  In the years to come, NCIS, LAW & ORDER, CSI and other series flooded the schedules with franchise spin-offs.   If you like it, they make more.   MILLIONAIRE predicted an appetite for content.  Sometimes, that appetite leads consumers to a different restaurant. 

So, again, was does this mean as we head into 2018?  There's no question that we have more of everything.   It’s also obvious that networks have to make sure viewers find new shows.   But how do you amplify a hit to a mega hit now?   It doesn’t help when shows are called hits immediately, whether or not they really are.  But, let’s look at bona-fide hits from recent years.   (There are popular streaming shows but their ratings results are often kept private.)  THE WALKING DEAD has unquestionably triumphed on cable, often surpassing broadcast shows.   Very quickly after it debuted, TWD was expanded to 16 episodes a season.  Wisely, they also didn’t make viewers wait until the following October for new episodes.   AMC split the season so that after a break, the episodes returned in February.  TWD also paved the way with after-shows like TALKING DEAD which gives us more time to spend with our favorite shows.

  

Similarly, EMPIRE has done the split seasons with 18 episodes after its initial success with 13.  Likewise, GOTHAM's first season was expected to be 18, then increased to 22.  ABC regularly adds episodes to their comedies from 22 to 23 or 24.  It’s not always easy since creative talent will now do television because contractually, they will only sign on for short seasons.  But, out of sight, out of mind.   There needs to be a way for even short-season shows to have a presence without disappearing for months at a time.   Maybe hiatuses can be reconfigured so that seasons premiere eight or nine months later, not a year later.

I also believe in the “wheel” strategy where networks rotate shows like how HBO and AMC do on Sunday nights.   If one of your favorite shows ends, it’s replaced with another, then another.   But don’t take a year to come back.  It's getting to be as if a year away is like when THE SOPRANOS would be gone for 18 months.  There is so much distraction.  I also think the formats should be explored.   Some one-hour shows could work as two-hours.  

This season’s breakout, THE GOOD DOCTOR, has the DNA to run a long time.   It is a procedural mystery combined with a fascinating lead character.   It’s not a coincidence that it’s HOUSE + optimism.  This is a rare modern achievement that should stay where it can be found with minimal interruption.  The audience could build into the second season and those who missed early episodes probably wouldn’t mind repeats on their DVR rather than pre-emptions when needed.  At a time where the 10 PM slot on broadcast networks has become increasingly troubled, this show is a gift.  Beyond scheduling, storytelling through a different perspective (in this case, autism) goes along with the fresh experiences CSI and MILLIONAIRE provided.  THIS IS US did this last season.

It's easy to say, but bringing excitement to a time period can change the game.  When the message is "we are targeting this day with this show" and the day becomes associated with the show, the audience believes it is being served.  There has been a noticeable difference even on weak nights like Friday when there is a strategy to give viewers a reason to invest (SHARK TANK, BLUE BLOODS).

Even in 2017, when viewers have never been hungrier for television, it just takes one hit.