Last night, after reading a few articles about the potential Disney-Fox deal, I had to see if the skies were truly falling. Television is experiencing seismic shifts where no one truly knows everything that will happen next. Some articles are probably click-bait, some are possibly insightful analyses. Could the fourth broadcast network radically change under Disney, or even go away? We know that there is more tv than ever before and viewers are turning to streaming while smaller cable networks are quietly shuttering. I decided to take a big picture look at how Fox, despite being in a rough patch, still provides a unique service to the television fan. Whereas many new services are flooding their shelves with original programming, those businesses are building their services. Fox, in its 30 years of experience, builds shows.
We all know what Fox is, from its early boldness with MARRIED... WITH CHILDREN and 90210 to its recent achievements like EMPIRE premiering strong, then building for seven weeks unlike any new show in over 30 years. Similarly, there is FX, which is a dream come true for fans of quality television with FARGO, BETTER THINGS and THE PEOPLE VS. O.J. SIMPSON. Fox, obviously, isn't as much of a boutique as its younger brother but still has a clear identity. To attempt a modern analogy: if FX is Amazon Prime, Fox is Amazon, which is reliably accessible to the masses who haven't signed on for annual payments.
Now, as mentioned in articles, in addition to NFL contracts, there are long-term commitments at Fox with THE SIMPSONS and FAMILY GUY. Also, they are likely to renew THE GIFTED as Disney/Marvel expands its television portfolio with X-Men spin-offs. So, in some form, as television morphs, Fox will have some roots that are not easy to sever. It was also mentioned that shows where there is urgency like reality-competition shows could take up more time slots. Streaming can't compete with the shared experience right now. I agree about reality potential, but never underestimate the durability of just one hit comedy or drama. There's also speculation that Fox missed out by having their studio's new hit THIS IS US on NBC. I think THIS IS US is a much more natural fit for NBC, just as NBCU comedies like BROOKLYN NINE NINE and THE MINDY PROJECT were better fits on FOX.
At a glance, Fox is an incredibly efficient model for showcasing series. They have no 10 PM slots to worry about at a time where DVR usage and other competition have made that hour terribly challenging for broadcast networks. Fox also has the mainstays, THE SIMPSONS and FAMILY GUY which are testaments to habitual viewers and also male viewers who don't typically watch much scripted television.
So, if we even put aside Friday and Saturday with reality, encores and sports (as well as the fluctuating Sun 7 PM hour), we are talking only ten hours to focus on between Sun-Thu 8-10 PM. EMPIRE and STAR seem to have locked up Wednesdays for much of the season. Warner Bros' LUCIFER and GOTHAM are steady performers likely to return, showing how other studios benefit airing on Fox. BOB'S BURGERS also has mileage left in it, and signals that another animated series could be a unique builder for the network since the other four broadcasters have none. Now a deal may keep Disney from using competitive product on FBC, but their own shows like AGENTS OF SHIELD and THE RUNAWAYS would likely get a wider reach by being associated with the FBC brand. Genre shows sometimes clash with broader networks with different audiences (See SUPERGIRL on CBS or SHIELD on ABC, home of Shondaland dramas.) Even their edgier Disney XD style animated series would get a more varied demographic on Fox. Those cartoons aren't just for kids.
So, we are looking at only a few vacant hours where a network can focus on making noise about a few new shows, rather than having to sell every new season of every product that a streamer does. The shows that build on broadcast are often long-term performers which will be needed for various platforms even if traditional viewing fades away in the next decade. People will still want their 200 episodes of SEINFELD, FRIENDS, NCIS and THE BIG BANG THEORY to shuffle through, whether it be nightly or in binges. These 10-episode seasons of newer series that might reach 50 episodes total, will likely not be evergreens. Since content is king, studios will want these marathon performers that will still be watched 20 years from now. Are there any shows that have burned brightly and then quickly ended which still have an evergreen presence?
The challenge, as always, is building new hits. And despite their power, even THE SIMPSONS and FAMILY GUY have rarely grown new hits at 8:30 and 9:30. But they don't require to make noise that launching new shows does. They also have episodes that are self-starters like THE SIMPSONS "Tree House of Horror" or guest star appearances that bring eyeballs despite the shows' age. Fox, although having a tough time the past few seasons, is still primed to launch the next EMPIRE or a handful of sitcoms that stations/streamers will need for fresh inventory in years to come. There really aren't many big new sitcoms in the pipeline for syndication. The other broadcasters have wisely stuck with the familiar, cobbling together schedules with relatively few holes. Who would have guessed a few years ago that The CW line-up is virtually airtight with needs for fewer than a half-dozen new shows? Or that NBC turned the tide shoring up Chicago dramas, THIS IS US, THE VOICE and other shows that have made their schedule rock solid? CBS has gone against all odds with BIG BANG THEORY and procedurals that have surpassed ten years on the air and still are going strong. If anything, it's Fox's turn for its new EMPIRE or NEW GIRL. And it would be wise to not walk away from the coins invested in this slot machine.
As streaming begins to compete with itself with the sheer volume of product, it seems like cable may be hurting more than broadcast. When cords are cut, the free broadcast networks-- and their natural modern expansions to their own streaming brands (CBS All Access, Disney) provide stability for an overwhelmed consumer. There are those of us who are obsessed with the television industry that forget that there is a country of "non-pros" who come home after a day at work and build habitual viewing. Sometimes they will search, and sometimes they will watch what is on now the way a restaurant presents its "specials of the day." The networks are morphing, and newer generations don't have the attachment to invest financially, but when the dust settles, there has to be some asylum where viewers don't have to make choices if they aren't interested in doing so. Traditional networks are family where many of us may stray to check out the exciting new things out there in life. But many of these exciting new things will be short-run friendships that come and go. We return to family.
I realize some of this may be biased, being a long-time viewer that loves many new shows yet remains loyal to mainstays like THE MIDDLE, SNL, THE FLASH, THE GOLDBERGS, et al. For better or worse, there is an alchemy to why shows last. Short-run shows have many gems but these long-timers build lifelong consumers. We love THE SOPRANOS, SEX AND THE CITY and BREAKING BAD but how often do these shows live on today bringing in new customers? There is an increasing compulsion to grade every show, every episode but that may just be among us diehard viewers. Longtime performers will have weak episodes and weak seasons in the valleys to get back to the gems. In the long run, does it matter if FRIENDS had a weak episode or a lesser season? Television will always need evergreens.
When Fox launched in 1987, many thought it was a folly. Some were surprised when it lasted. It's unbelievable to realize that MARRIED... WITH CHILDREN and THE SIMPSONS gave the Big 3 a run for its money when the network was only two years old. History has shown us that believing in the potential established brands provides often pays off in the long run.
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